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Edmonton Weather on July 8: Heatwave Peak

Edmonton Weather on July 8: Heatwave Peak
Edmonton Weather on July 8: Heatwave Peak

Heat and air quality warnings are in effect for much of Alberta.

Air quality from wildfire smoke is worst in the north and east of the province, with Edmonton on the edge reporting a “moderate risk” this morning.

According to modelling by Environment and Climate Change Canada, air quality has improved in areas around Edmonton today, with no significant smoke development expected in the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Northern and eastern Alberta will continue to experience smoke over the next few days. Areas closer to the fires in northern Alberta will experience “high to very high risk” ratings ranging from 7 to 10+ on the Air Quality Health Index.

We have an upper ridge that has moved across much of the province. The northern and eastern edges of the ridge run through northern Alberta and near the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.

The wind blowing around the top of the ridge is the main reason why much more smoke is released in those areas than in the areas below the ridge.

That heat bubble flowing from the Earth’s surface to the higher layers is also the reason why heat warnings are in effect across most of Alberta.

The mountain parks are the only areas not under a heat warning. Daytime highs are warm, but there is some relief at night with cooler morning lows in the forecast.

For Edmonton and the surrounding area, we will come very close to record temperatures today, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The record highs are:

  • July 8: 32.2 C in 1964
  • July 9: 35.1 C in 2015
  • July 10: 33.0 C in 2001

(As an aside, I think today and Wednesday offer the best chance to set new daily record highs.)

I am cautiously predicting highs of 31C today, 32C on Tuesday and 33C on Wednesday. But there are model results that bring temperatures closer to 34 or 35C.

These three days will be the hottest days of the heat wave, as temperatures will drop to around 30 degrees Celsius in the afternoon and minimum temperatures will drop to 16 to 20 degrees Celsius in the morning.

The AVERAGE high temperature for this week in Edmonton is 23°C. So it’s about eight to ten degrees warmer than average.

The ridge appears likely to collapse Wednesday evening, likely bringing thunderstorms (possibly severe storms) across much of central and northcentral Alberta.

There is currently a chance of evening or overnight showers in the Edmonton area on Wednesday.

From Thursday to Saturday, temperatures will drop to well below 30 degrees, but will remain warmer than average with afternoon temperatures around 20 degrees.

There is also a chance of some late showers and/or thunderstorms on Saturday.

Here is the weather forecast for Edmonton and surrounding areas:

Today – Sunny.

RECORD: 32.2 -1964

High: 31

Tonight – Clear.

9:00 PM: 28

Tuesday – Sunny.

RECORD: 35.1 -2015

Morning minimum: 18

Afternoon high: 32

Wednesday – Mostly sunny. 40% chance of an evening thunderstorm.

RECORD: 33.0 -2001

Morning minimum: 20

Afternoon high: 33

Thursday – Mostly sunny.

Morning minimum: 18

Afternoon high: 28

Friday – Partly cloudy.

Morning minimum: 16

Afternoon high: 27

Saturday – Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day.

Morning minimum: 16

Afternoon high: 27